Jared Crozier: Game Day: Sens Host Blues; Turris' Progression As #1 Centre Predictions?

IMO Turris/Ryan/Mac were really the first line last year. So Spezza was actually the 2C and your data seems to show Zibby is not filling Spezza's vacancy.

Just a different way to compare the two seasons.

IMO Turris/Ryan/Mac were really the first line last year. So Spezza was actually the 2C and your data seems to show Zibby is not filling Spezza's vacancy.

Just a different way to compare the two seasons.
- magmoo

There is a difference between first line centre and #1 centre. Even if 16-7-6 was the "first line", Spezza by himself still took some of the heat off them, because you had to respect his gamebreaking ability. I still think Spezza was and is more of a true #1 than Turris, but the numbers show that at worst it is a wash, and at best they are better off on the whole without him. That may seem hypocritical, but it is what it is.

And yes, as I stated, Zibanejad has not stepped up like the Senators need him to.

Uh oh

You certainly followed the evidence, Jared. But be prepared for incoming flak.

Uh oh

You certainly followed the evidence, Jared. But be prepared for incoming flak.
- Fjodor

Which flak are you referring to? It can come in so many forms!

Which flak are you referring to? It can come in so many forms!
- JaredCrozier

I might be wrong, but my guess is that the crowd who frowned upon "the this and the that" discussion will have similar reactions to this topic.

Unfortunately I have a feeling the Sens are going to get spanked by the Blues today.

Great blog today. While there is a lot of season left and a lot can happen, it is a good time to examine the game Turris has played this season. This should not turn into a Spezza vs Turris thing in my opinion. It should purely be examining the game Turris is playing as the undisputed #1 centre on this team.

Overall, his numbers are down from a year ago. His point production (which I love) is down and his fancy pants stats (other posters love) are down. That is not something you want to see of a guy that is taking on more responsibility. Can this trend reverse? Most certainly. Turris has lots of room to improve his game. Right now we have a guy who would be a second line centre on a lot of other teams playing first line centre minutes. His stats this year, last year, and the year before all support the fact he is a very solid second line centre. We need to see a jump somewhere to claim that he is a first line centre. That should be in the point totals. He certainly has the opportunities to increase from years past. I don't think that's a harsh observation. It's simply wanting more from a guy you think is capable of more.

The assessment Jared gave Turris at the end of the blog is pretty spot on. His playing alright, but certainly can be better. Growth and improvement can still happen. I'm intrigued to see if he can deliver.

The dreaded afternoon game. The Sens stink at those and the hockey is always crummy. Shootout result. Toss up for the extra point.

Jared Crozier: Game Day: Sens Host Blues; Turris' Progression As #1 Centre
Predictions?
- JaredCrozier

Good blog.

As you say, Turris's play is perfectly 'adequate.' He's not hurting the team, and definitely helping it most of the time. Whether it's that being good over 200 feet and scoring 50-60 points a season makes one a #1 centre is a matter of semantics... I never really thought of Ryan Kesler or Tomas Plekanec as 'true' #1 centres, but I think Turris could be in the conversation with being players of that calibre... And that's pretty good one way or another

Uh oh

You certainly followed the evidence, Jared. But be prepared for incoming flak.
- Fjodor

Whatcha talking about, Fjodor? We are all agreed on the evidence from last year, we all know it, but interpretations vary somewhat

Great blog today. While there is a lot of season left and a lot can happen, it is a good time to examine the game Turris has played this season. This should not turn into a Spezza vs Turris thing in my opinion. It should purely be examining the game Turris is playing as the undisputed #1 centre on this team.

Overall, his numbers are down from a year ago. His point production (which I love) is down and his fancy pants stats (other posters love) are down. That is not something you want to see of a guy that is taking on more responsibility. Can this trend reverse? Most certainly. Turris has lots of room to improve his game. Right now we have a guy who would be a second line centre on a lot of other teams playing first line centre minutes. His stats this year, last year, and the year before all support the fact he is a very solid second line centre. We need to see a jump somewhere to claim that he is a first line centre. That should be in the point totals. He certainly has the opportunities to increase from years past. I don't think that's a harsh observation. It's simply wanting more from a guy you think is capable of more.

The assessment Jared gave Turris at the end of the blog is pretty spot on. His playing alright, but certainly can be better. Growth and improvement can still happen. I'm intrigued to see if he can deliver.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I think your interpretation is correct.

The primary change this year from last is the focus of the team in reducing GAA. They believe they can win by being more responsible. Zibanejad is doing the defensive part okay. But he is not doing enough in the offensive zone. If Legwand is your third line center he is okay. And, if Lazar is your fourth line, he has been great. But, a good second line center is still needed until Lazar moves up.

There will be lots of changes and deals by teams starting soon. Murray will have no difficulty finding a right fit if he decides to go in that direction.

Good blog.

As you say, Turris's play is perfectly 'adequate.' He's not hurting the team, and definitely helping it most of the time. Whether it's that being good over 200 feet and scoring 50-60 points a season makes one a #1 centre is a matter of semantics... I never really thought of Ryan Kesler or Tomas Plekanec as 'true' #1 centres, but I think Turris could be in the conversation with being players of that calibre... And that's pretty good one way or another
- Mr_Clean

I have always thought of Turris as a #1 in the tradition of Patrice Bergeron. A guy that plays head to head against the other team's best center and comes out even or better. A large part of his offense comes off of his superior defensive play.
not saying Turris is as good as Bergeron, rather wanting to emphasize best results come out of his style of defensive game.

Can Zibanejad get his game into the Krejijci range? Maybe not.

Good blog.

As you say, Turris's play is perfectly 'adequate.' He's not hurting the team, and definitely helping it most of the time. Whether it's that being good over 200 feet and scoring 50-60 points a season makes one a #1 centre is a matter of semantics... I never really thought of Ryan Kesler or Tomas Plekanec as 'true' #1 centres, but I think Turris could be in the conversation with being players of that calibre... And that's pretty good one way or another
- Mr_Clean

this is a fair assessment. also, i think its important to mention (as jared points out) kt has still not reached his ceiling. he's never going to be JS, but if we continue to develop 4 lines that can play, he doesnt have to be.

GA per 60 minutes is a huge number for top line centers.

Last year in Ottawa Jason Spezza had the worst GA per 60 minutes of all centers playing 50 games or more.

This year he has a GA per 60 minutes of 4.15. It the worst of any NHL center playing 10 games or more. Jason Spezza can still score goals and he has great ice vision and playmaking ability. But he cannot get back and play in his own end.

If you have a first or second line center that is on the ice for 4.15 goals for each 60 minutes played, you will lose more games than you win.

(stop do not get upset. I posted this on wrong thread. I thought I was on the thread dealing with the hot stove comments on Spezza resigning with Dallas. Forgive me, I was not trying to be provocative.

GA per 60 minutes is a huge number for top line centers.

Last year in Ottawa Jason Spezza had the worst GA per 60 minutes of all centers playing 50 games or more.

This year he has a GA per 60 minutes of 4.15. It the worst of any NHL center playing 10 games or more. Jason Spezza can still score goals and he has great ice vision and playmaking ability. But he cannot get back and play in his own end.

If you have a first or second line center that is on the ice for 4.15 goals for each 60 minutes played, you will lose more games than you win.

(stop do not get upset. I posted this on wrong thread. I thought I was on the thread dealing with the hot stove comments on Spezza resigning with Dallas. Forgive me, I was no trying to be provocative.
- spatso

good point. GA gets overlooked a lot.

Unfortunately I have a feeling the Sens are going to get spanked by the Blues today.
- maaddmike

It's ok, we're playing at 3pm and not 2pm, everything's going to be ooookkkk...I hope!

Sens are poop

Sens are poop
- ClarksonDavid

No u!

Whatcha talking about, Fjodor? We are all agreed on the evidence from last year, we all know it, but interpretations vary somewhat
- Mr_Clean

Yeah, to put it mildly....

I honestly thought Gord would get tilted by Jared's post, given that he admonished me to stop digging in "stats created by bored mathematicians" yesterday. I didn't even mention possession metrics, just compared on-ice goals for and against. Jared went a bit further, but I'm glad that the response was positive.

For now I'll gladly take Gord's advice and "forget the (frank)ing Spezza angle" (also because of the inappropriate imagery that popped up ), so the question should be: is this a better team than the one we had last season?
I think it is. An explicit goal was to cut total GA by 50. We're not there yet; current pace is maybe 30 less. But it's progress nevertheless. If we can load up with a T4D (e.g. a healthy Methot) and an above-average winger, we'll definitely get there.

Yeah, to put it mildly....

I honestly thought Gord would get tilted by Jared's post, given that he admonished me to stop digging in "stats created by bored mathematicians" yesterday. I didn't even mention possession metrics, just compared on-ice goals for and against. Jared went a bit further, but I'm glad that the response was positive.

For now I'll gladly take Gord's advice and "forget the (frank)ing Spezza angle" (also because of the inappropriate imagery that popped up ), so the question should be: is this a better team than the one we had last season?
I think it is. An explicit goal was to cut total GA by 50. We're not there yet; current pace is maybe 30 less. But it's progress nevertheless. If we can load up with a T4D (e.g. a healthy Methot) and an above-average winger, we'll definitely get there.
- Fjodor

I think this is the critical point in understanding where this team is headed.

Yeah, to put it mildly....

I honestly thought Gord would get tilted by Jared's post, given that he admonished me to stop digging in "stats created by bored mathematicians" yesterday. I didn't even mention possession metrics, just compared on-ice goals for and against. Jared went a bit further, but I'm glad that the response was positive.

For now I'll gladly take Gord's advice and "forget the (frank)ing Spezza angle" (also because of the inappropriate imagery that popped up ), so the question should be: is this a better team than the one we had last season?
I think it is. An explicit goal was to cut total GA by 50. We're not there yet; current pace is maybe 30 less. But it's progress nevertheless. If we can load up with a T4D (e.g. a healthy Methot) and an above-average winger, we'll definitely get there.
- Fjodor

Yeah we are better, but as I've said before, if we're better it's moreso that our goaltending has been phenomenal than anything else.

We still have: somewhat above average offence.
Somewhat below average defending.
And coaching that ranges from good to questionable depending on the situation.

The big difference? Goaltending is up several notches from last year.

If not for Robin Lehner, we definitely go to OT against Nashville, if not losing in regulation. Now, I have seen a lot of areas where the Senators could very easily improve - for example, Turris could start producing at a higher rate given the chances he's been generating, or Methot could stabilise the d-corp further.

It's not to say that we will or won't see improvements in these areas, but I think we are going to need them given the likelihood of our goaltenders regressing somewhat over the course of the season.

Yeah we are better, but as I've said before, if we're better it's moreso that our goaltending has been phenomenal than anything else.

We still have: somewhat above average offence.
Somewhat below average defending.
And coaching that ranges from good to questionable depending on the situation.

The big difference? Goaltending is up several notches from last year.

If not for Robin Lehner, we definitely go to OT against Nashville, if not losing in regulation. Now, I have seen a lot of areas where the Senators could very easily improve - for example, Turris could start producing at a higher rate given the chances he's been generating, or Methot could stabilise the d-corp further.

It's not to say that we will or won't see improvements in these areas, but I think we are going to need them given the likelihood of our goaltenders regressing somewhat over the course of the season.
- Mr_Clean

we are developing this... i hope, but dont think i'd describe our offence as above average, esp. bc we are still waiting for some of our big guns to get going.

Yeah, to put it mildly....

I honestly thought Gord would get tilted by Jared's post, given that he admonished me to stop digging in "stats created by bored mathematicians" yesterday. I didn't even mention possession metrics, just compared on-ice goals for and against. Jared went a bit further, but I'm glad that the response was positive.

For now I'll gladly take Gord's advice and "forget the (frank)ing Spezza angle" (also because of the inappropriate imagery that popped up ), so the question should be: is this a better team than the one we had last season?
I think it is. An explicit goal was to cut total GA by 50. We're not there yet; current pace is maybe 30 less. But it's progress nevertheless. If we can load up with a T4D (e.g. a healthy Methot) and an above-average winger, we'll definitely get there.
- Fjodor

I'm not so sure why you thought I would be tilted. Jared's post was great. It's proved exactly what I'm trying to stress; (in a much more elegant and friendly way) that Turris is playing alright. Through both the fancy stats and tradition goals and assists, he isn't performing as well as last year, and therefore hasn't made a jump to being a "first line centre" just yet. The progress we hope to see from Turris has yet to become a reality. This is all I'm trying to say. Jared proved it in his blog. This is not to say he can't be better. He has the tools. It could very well come together at anytime. My instinct is that down the road we will have to address the centre position again, whether it's getting a guy who can play ahead of Turris in the lineup or getting or developing guys that can support him better in the bottom of the lineup.

Yeah we are better, but as I've said before, if we're better it's moreso that our goaltending has been phenomenal than anything else.

We still have: somewhat above average offence.
Somewhat below average defending.
And coaching that ranges from good to questionable depending on the situation.

The big difference? Goaltending is up several notches from last year.

If not for Robin Lehner, we definitely go to OT against Nashville, if not losing in regulation. Now, I have seen a lot of areas where the Senators could very easily improve - for example, Turris could start producing at a higher rate given the chances he's been generating, or Methot could stabilise the d-corp further.

It's not to say that we will or won't see improvements in these areas, but I think we are going to need them given the likelihood of our goaltenders regressing somewhat over the course of the season.
- Mr_Clean

Great goaltending covers a lot of holes in lineups. Sens are a prime example right now. I don't think we are any better or worse than last year. There is a different philosophy for sure, but it has yet to see significant results.